The Climate Research Unit hack (64 MB, FOI2009.zip)

A few days after leaked e-mail messages appeared on the Internet, the U.S. Congress may probe whether prominent scientists who are advocates of global warming theories may have misrepresented the truth about climate change. Sen. James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican, said on Monday the leaked correspondence suggested researchers “cooked the science to make this thing look as if the science was settled, when all the time of course we knew it was not,” according to a transcript of a radio interview posted on his Web site.

Aides for Rep. Darrell Issa, a California Republican, are also looking into the disclosure. The leaked documents (see our previous coverage) come from the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in eastern England. In global warming circles, the CRU wields outsize influence: it claims the world’s largest temperature data set, and its work and mathematical models were incorporated into the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 report. That report, in turn, is what the Environmental Protection Agency acknowledged it “relies on most heavily” when concluding that carbon dioxide emissions endanger public health and should be regulated.

via Congress may probe leaked global warming e-mails | Politics and Law – CNET News.

James Inhofe has been saying, since at least 2003, that there is a conspiracy. This quote is from 2005:

“As I said on the Senate floor on July 28, 2003, “much of the debate over global warming is predicated on fear, rather than science.” I called the threat of catastrophic global warming the “greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people,” – senate.gov

Inhofe’s claims have been debunked in the past. People need to understand how many independent scientists are concluding that warming is real and man is responsible.

For instance, the American Geophysical Union, which includes 50,000 earth, ocean and atmospheric scientists, among others, whose first mission is to value the scientific method (rational skepticism), has stated since 2003 that “Human activities are increasingly altering the Earth’s climate. These effects add to natural influences that have been present over Earth’s history. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century. … The unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, together with other human influences on climate over the past century and those anticipated for the future, constitute a real basis for concern.”

And if you, like Inhofe, value international expertise, consider the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. By some estimates, 2,000 scientists have participated. Their sole purpose is to state consensus about global warming, humankind’s role in causing it and its likely effects. The panel spoke clearly last year that it is nearly certain that human pollution is making the climate warmer, and that it will have dire consequences around the world.

I found this post from the Hadley Centre interesting:

As many of you will be aware, a large number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia webmail server were hacked recently (Despite some confusion generated by Anthony Watts, this has absolutely nothing to do with the Hadley Centre which is a completely separate institution). As people are also no doubt aware the breaking into of computers and releasing private information is illegal, and regardless of how they were obtained, posting private correspondence without permission is unethical. We therefore aren’t going to post any of the emails here. We were made aware of the existence of this archive last Tuesday morning when the hackers attempted to upload it to RealClimate, and we notified CRU of their possible security breach later that day.

Nonetheless, these emails (a presumably careful selection of (possibly edited?) correspondence dating back to 1996 and as recently as Nov 12) are being widely circulated, and therefore require some comment. Some of them involve people here (and the archive includes the first RealClimate email we ever sent out to colleagues) and include discussions we’ve had with the CRU folk on topics related to the surface temperature record and some paleo-related issues, mainly to ensure that posting were accurate.

Since emails are normally intended to be private, people writing them are, shall we say, somewhat freer in expressing themselves than they would in a public statement. For instance, we are sure it comes as no shock to know that many scientists do not hold Steve McIntyre in high regard. Nor that a large group of them thought that the Soon and Baliunas (2003), Douglass et al (2008) or McClean et al (2009) papers were not very good (to say the least) and should not have been published. These sentiments have been made abundantly clear in the literature (though possibly less bluntly).

More interesting is what is not contained in the emails. There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to ‘get rid of the MWP’, no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no ‘marching orders’ from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords. The truly paranoid will put this down to the hackers also being in on the plot though.

Instead, there is a peek into how scientists actually interact and the conflicts show that the community is a far cry from the monolith that is sometimes imagined. People working constructively to improve joint publications; scientists who are friendly and agree on many of the big picture issues, disagreeing at times about details and engaging in ‘robust’ discussions; Scientists expressing frustration at the misrepresentation of their work in politicized arenas and complaining when media reports get it wrong; Scientists resenting the time they have to take out of their research to deal with over-hyped nonsense. None of this should be shocking.

It’s obvious that the noise-generating components of the blogosphere will generate a lot of noise about this. but it’s important to remember that science doesn’t work because people are polite at all times. Gravity isn’t a useful theory because Newton was a nice person. QED isn’t powerful because Feynman was respectful of other people around him. Science works because different groups go about trying to find the best approximations of the truth, and are generally very competitive about that. That the same scientists can still all agree on the wording of an IPCC chapter for instance is thus even more remarkable.

- realclimate.org

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/press.html is the latest science – and sorry GOPers/dittoheads/Beck lovers/ Fox News believers – the SCIENCE says Global warming is real, getting worse, and the part that is man-made appears likely to destroy our grandkids lives as it is growing more rapidly than expected – with a tipping point soon

Some interesting background:

1. There was a previous data breach/leak in July 2009 or before. It appears that just one person was the recipient of the stolen data: Stephen McIntyre, who says he got them anonymously. The breach was due to an insider (”mole”) in the UK. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6644 http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6634 (esp. comment #3)

(McIntyre is a skeptic of human-caused Global Warming, not a denier. He focuses on problems/weaknesses he sees in the data and methods.)

2. McIntyre has been in a long-running battle with the UEA HCC/CRU over access to their data, their “code” (data analysis software), and even their emails http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3234. Here’s McIntyre’s philosophy and goals in this quest: http://www.climateaudit.org/index.php?p=66 . Here’s a short summary of the conflict, published just a day before the recent breach hit the wires: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704335904574496850939846712.html

3. McIntyre was actively monitoring defensive actions by UEA HCC/CRU over the summer, including “massive data purges”: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6673 (Is “Climate Audit reader Super-Grover” an insider, given the comment “worse than we expected”??).

4. McIntyre has just recently been denied in his appeal of the rejection of his most recent FOI. http://camirror.wordpress.com/2009/11/21/test/

Putting these together, plus imminent start of the Copenhagen Climate Summit…

… it doesn’t take a detective genuis to see that the current data breach/theft/leak is probably just a continuation of this on-going war between these parties. It’s also likely that the same “mole” is also responsible or involved in this breach.

Rapidshare still has a this leak document: http://rapidshare.com/files/309710046/FOI2009.zip

(64 MB, 157 MB when expanded.). It was originally posted to a Russian server but that link has been removed:

http://ftp.tomcity.ru/incoming/free/FOI2009.zip.

How soon until “Hactivism” hits the other side? Will we see 100 MB of Glenn Beck or Rush Limbaugh email hack downloads?

Summary: Yes, huge sums of money are at stake. There is indeed a battle and each side uses propaganda because it must, because you, the consumer, the voter, respond emotionally, not rationally. Despite the battle tactics, there is an objective truth about Climate Change.  This leak does not change that.

Over 100 icebergs drifting to N.Zealand: official

More than 100, and possibly hundreds, of Antarctic icebergs are floating towards New Zealand in a rare event which has prompted a shipping warning, officials said on Monday.

An Australian Antarctic Division glaciologist said the ice chunks, spotted by satellite photography, had passed the Auckland Islands and were heading towards the main South Island, about 450 kilometres (280 miles) northeast.

Scientist Neal Young said more than 100 icebergs — some measuring more than 200 metres (650 feet) across — were seen in just one cluster, indicating there could be hundreds more.

He said they were the remains of a massive ice floe which split from the Antarctic as sea and air temperatures rise due to global warming.

“All of these have come from a larger one that was probably 30 square kilometres (11.6 square miles) in size when it left Antarctica,” Young told AFP.

“It’s done a long circuit around Antarctica and now the bigger parts of it are breaking up and producing smaller ones.”

He said large numbers of icebergs had not floated this close to New Zealand since 2006, when a number came within 25 kilometres of the coastline — the first such sighting since 1931.

“They’re following the same tracks now up towards New Zealand. Whether they make it up to the South Island or not is difficult to tell,” Young said.

New Zealand has already issued coastal navigation warnings for the area in the Southern Ocean where the icebergs have been seen.

“It’s really just a general warning for shipping in that area to be on the alert for icebergs,” said Maritime New Zealand spokesman Ross Henderson.

The icebergs are smaller remnants of the giant chunks seen off Australia’s Macquarie Island this month, including one estimated at two kilometres (1.2 miles) and another twice the size of Beijing’s “Bird’s Nest” Olympic Stadium.

Young earlier told AFP he expected to see more icebergs in the area if the Earth’s temperature continues to increase.

“If the current trends in global warming were to continue I would anticipate seeing more icebergs and the large ice shelves breaking up,” he said.

via Over 100 icebergs drifting to N.Zealand: official – Yahoo! News.

This is not a hoax.  This is a real iceberg. It is one of many resulting from the world’s largest ice blocks melting and breaking up. Global warming deniers are like those people who keep writing for “Dr. Johnson’s” secret formula to win the lottery.  Wishful thinking and denial may eventually destroy the human race.

Mysteriously warm times in Antarctica

Slice of ice core from Berkner Island, depth 120m. Trapped air bubbles (an archive of the past atmosphere) are visible in the ice. (Credit: Image courtesy of British Antarctic Survey)

A new study of Antarctica’s past climate reveals that temperatures during the warm periods between ice ages (interglacials) may have been higher than previously thought. The latest analysis of ice core records suggests that Antarctic temperatures may have been up to 6°C warmer than the present day.

The findings, recently reported by scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), the Open University and University of Bristol in the journal Nature could help us understand more about rapid Antarctic climate changes.

Previous analysis of ice cores has shown that the climate consists of ice ages and warmer interglacial periods roughly every 100,000 years. This new investigation shows temperature ’spikes’ within some of the interglacial periods over the last 340,000 years. This suggests Antarctic temperature shows a high level of sensitivity to greenhouse gases at levels similar to those found today.

Lead author Louise Sime of British Antarctic Survey said,

“We didn’t expect to see such warm temperatures, and we don’t yet know in detail what caused them. But they indicate that Antarctica’s climate may have undergone rapid shifts during past periods of high CO2.”

During the last warm period, about 125,000 years ago, sea level was around 5 metres higher than today.

Ice core scientist Eric Wolff of British Antarctic Survey is a world-leading expert on past climate. He said,

“If we can pin down how much warmer temperatures were in Antarctica and Greenland at this time, then we can test predictions of how melting of the large ice sheets may contribute to sea level rise.”

via Mysteriously warm times in Antarctica.

Sting urges Brazil to listen to tribal dam fears

Rock star Sting has used his latest visit to Brazil to urge the government there to listen to the concerns of indigenous peoples over a proposed new hydro-electric dam in the Amazon.

He was speaking at a press conference in Sao Paulo where he was reunited with indigenous leader Raoni Metyktire who joined him in a similar campaign 20 years ago which attracted worldwide attention.

Indigenous tribes in the Amazon say the Belo Monte project, which would be the third largest hydro-electric dam in the world, poses a threat to their way of life. …

It proved to be an attention-grabbing combination of a rock star standing alongside the striking figure of an indigenous leader whose lower lip is expanded several centimetres by a traditional plate, a trademark of his tribe.

With renewed international attention on the cause of protecting the Amazon, the original hydro-electric project was abandoned, but now the Brazilian government is proposing a new scheme which they say is more environmentally friendly.

Critics have insisted the Belo Monte dam would still flood large areas of rainforest, have a major impact on fish stocks and undermine the way of life of thousands of indigenous people.

Speaking to the BBC, Sting said while the decision was for Brazilians alone, the debate had an impact far beyond South America’s largest country.

“This is the heart of the Amazon and what happens here affects the whole world,” he said.

“This was my intuition but now the science is backing that up, I mean substantial science is saying this is true.

“We need to save this forest.

via BBC News – Sting urges Brazil to listen to tribal dam fears.

Acid oceans leave fish at more risk from predators

Ocean acidification could cause fish to become “fatally attracted” to their predators, according to scientists.

A team studying the effects of acidification – caused by dissolved CO2 – on ocean reefs found that it leaves fish unable to “smell danger”.

Young clownfish that were reared in the acidified water became attracted to rather than repelled by the chemical signals released by predatory fish.

The findings were published in the journal Ecology Letters.

Danielle Dixson from James Cook University in Queensland, Australia, led the study.

She and her colleagues tested orange clown fish larvae that were raised in water with the same slightly alkaline pH as their ocean reef habitat, and those raised in more acidic water.

The team released the fish into a “flow chamber” with two water sources flowing in parallel.

One source was taken from tanks containing the clown fishes’ natural predators and one was drawn from tanks in which non-predatory fish were swimming.

“The flow rates are identical, so the water won’t mix,” Ms Dixson explained. “This allows the fish in the chamber to choose which water cue they prefer or dislike.”

In the test, the fish reared in normal water avoided the stream of water that their predators had been swimming in. They detected the odour of a predator and swam away from it.

via BBC News – Acid oceans leave fish at more risk from predators.

Earth’s Weather Like You Have Never Seen It Before

This video shows Earth’s weather from August 17 to August 26, 2009. It also shows how beautiful this planet is, and how insignificant we are. It was created at a 7-kilometer resolution with NASA’s GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model.

The GEOS-5 atmospheric model was developed by NASA Goddard’s scientists. It’s based on the Earth System Modeling Framework, an open source project “for building climate, numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, and other Earth science software applications.”

To really appreciate its beauty, you can watch the 1080p high definition video at NASA.

- via gizmodo

Developing ‘green’ tires that boost mileage and cut carbon dioxide emissions

A new generation of “green” automobile tires that can boost fuel efficiency without sacrificing safety and durability is rolling their way through the research pipeline. The new tires could help add an extra mile or two per gallon to a car’s fuel economy. That’s the topic of the cover story of the current issue of Chemical & Engineering News, (C&EN) ACS’ weekly newsmagazine.

C&EN Senior Editor Alexander Tullo explains that rolling resistance — the friction that tires encounter when rolling — are a major factor in a vehicle’s fuel economy. It can determine up to 20 percent of fuel economy. Overcoming it accounts for 4 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. For years, tire makers and their raw material suppliers have been eyeing lower rolling resistance as a way to boost fuel economy and promote a cleaner environment. But they have been thwarted by a principle in the tire world called the “magic triangle of tire technology.” It holds that an improvement to rolling resistance has to come at the expense of wet-road grip and durability.

That barrier is now falling, thanks to the development of new materials, including new forms of silica and nanomaterials. These new materials include a nanogel that improves abrasion resistance, grip and rolling resistance of tires as well as a newly-developed resin that helps tires retain air longer. But there’s a catch: Motorists still will have to keep tires properly inflated to take full advantage of the new technology, the article notes.

via Developing ‘green’ tires that boost mileage and cut carbon dioxide emissions.

Strange jello rain made entire town of Oakville, WA sick for months

Hmm…

Frigid Antarctica Loaded with Viruses

Antarctica’s icy lakes are home to a surprisingly diverse community of viruses, including some that were previously unidentified.

At first glance, Antarctica’s freshwater lakes don’t seem very hospitable to life. They remain frozen for a good nine months out of the year, and they contain very few nutrients. Some of these lakes have little animal life and are dominated by microorganisms, including algae, bacteria, protozoans and viruses.

With few animal and microbial predators around, viruses likely play an important role in controlling the abundance of other microorganisms, the researcher say. However, these viruses have been historically hard to study since many cannot be grown in a laboratory. But thanks to new genome sequencing technology, scientists can identify viruses without needing to grow them.

“We are just starting to uncover the world of viruses, and this is changing the way we think about viruses and the role they play in microbial ecosystems,” said Antonio Alcami, a researcher from the Spanish Research Council.

A virus is little more than a package of DNA surrounded by a capsule structure. To survive, viruses must hijack, or infect, living cells and use the host’s equipment to replicate.

Alcami and his colleagues analyzed DNA from viruses found in water samples collected from Antarctica’s Lake Limnopolar, a surface lake on Livingston Island. They found nearly 10,000 species, including some small DNA viruses that had never before been identified. In total, the viruses were from 12 different families, some of which may be completely new to science, the researchers suggest.

The results reveal this Antarctic lake supports a virus community that’s more diverse than most aquatic environments studied in the world so far – a surprising find considering that the polar region is generally thought to have low biological diversity due to the extreme environmental conditions. The scientists speculate the newly discovered viruses may have adapted specifically to thrive in such harsh conditions.

The team also found the community of viruses changed dramatically depending on the season. When the lake was ice-covered in the spring, the liquid water under the ice was inhabited by mostly small viruses, but in the summer months when the ice melted, the lake was home to mostly larger viruses.

via Frigid Antarctica Loaded with Viruses – Yahoo! News.

Weird. When I found this photo, I swear I did NOT see a man in the photo. I thought he was a brown break in the ice. I guess since I did not expect to see anyone diving in Antarctica my brain rejected what it saw.

Ice retreat creates new CO2 store

It is like finding a forest the size of Wales that nobody knew was there before…

Retreating ice in Antarctic has allowed tiny aquatic plants to flourish and absorb 3.5 million tonnes of carbon from the ocean and atmosphere annually.

Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey say the new “carbon sink” of phytoplankton is equivalent to discovering a forest the size of Wales.

However, the authors added, the discovery would only have a “minuscule effect on climate change”.

The findings have been published in the journal Global Change Biology.

“What we are talking about are are large ice shelves the size of an English county,” explained lead author Lloyd Peck, a marine biologist for the British Antarctic Survey.

“When they disappear, we are getting new pieces of sea,” he explained.

“In the past, you could not have had life where the ice was because it was perhaps 500m thick and stopped all light coming in. Once it had gone, then you have new areas for light to colonise.”

Writing in the paper, Professor Peck and his colleagues observed: “A range of feedback mechanisms affecting climate change have been identified.

“These feedbacks are almost universally positive, enhancing rates of climate warming.”

These included the warming of sea and air that led to a loss of ice cover, which in turn had reduced the amount of solar energy being reflected back into space by ice (the albedo effect).

Current major carbon sinks – forests and oceanic phytoplankton blooms – were also under threat, they added.

“The loss of glaciers and ice shelves is also thought of as a factor that will predominantly increase warming of the Earth because of changes in albedo and heat take-up in newly uncovered ground and ocean.

But, they said, the loss of ice cover resulted in the “opening up of new areas for biological productivity”.

via BBC NEWS | Science & Environment | Ice retreat creates new CO2 store.