The 1947 Crash at Roswell, Analysis of Competing Hypothesis

Note: Someone knowledgeable who I respect let me know all of the Nazi UFO stuff is a hoax. So, take it as entertainment if you like. The point of this post (still in progress) will be to document all the various beliefs in one time line and let them compete. I still have to put in all the alien stuff. I left that out at first to see the timeline without it.

Target: The Roswell incident of July 1947.

Method: Use Xeno’s simplified Analysis of Competing Hypothesis ( ACH ) technique to minimize flawed thinking, human error and deliberate deception.

Step 1, Identify all potential hypotheses.
Step 2, List “facts” in time line on spread sheet and assign validity value scores.
Step 3, Create matrix: Link each fact as being for, neutral, or against each hypothesis
Step 4, Score shows winning hypothesis.

Lather, Rinse, Repeat.

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Step 1, Identify all potential hypotheses.

Read everything you can on the topic, pull out distinct explanations. Come back and add to this as you go through the other steps.

H0: US Ordinary weather balloon
H1: US Mogul project to monitor soviet nuke tests
H2: US flying wing test crash
H3: US flying saucer test crash
H4: US rocket test
H5: Japanese FUGO balloon bomb
H6: Nazi flying saucer
H7: Soviet spy device
H8: Aliens

Step 2, List facts in time line on spread sheet matrix and assign validity values.

Here are the validity value scores I currently use.

100 points: (=) Undisputed physical evidence or historical fact.
 75 points: (£) Logical deduction from undisputed evidence/facts
 50 points: (O) Witness report untainted trained/careful/credible observer
 25 points: (o) Eye-witness testimony of untainted layperson
 10 points: (+) Second hand information, unexposed to disinfo
  2 points: (?) Unverified from researchers who also cite known facts
  1 point:  (~) Testimony after disinfo contact, coersion, or long time
  0 points: (-) Imagination, rumors, unknown

With a spreadsheet you can adjust validity values to see which hypothesis wins.

July 7, 2008: The time line I was building here got too big so I moved it here.

Photo: Dig my sunset. Click it to be transported.

You have new Picture Mail!, originally uploaded by xeno735.

Firefox 3 Boosts Browser’s Market Share Over 19%

Firefox 3 has experienced rapid market share gains since its release in mid-June, helping to push the Mozilla browser’s overall share to more than 19%, a Web metrics firm said Wednesday.Since its release June 17, Firefox 3’s worldwide usage share has soared to more than 4%, Net Applications reported. In the first hour of its release, the latest version of the open source browser grabbed 1% of the global market. – info

Broswer upgrade time. Over 300 memory leaks fixed, better security, more speed, the “awesome bar” are a few reasons to upgrade. MORE HERE.

Funny Cat Video

more about "Funny Cat Video", posted with vodpod